Issue #171August 30, 2026
San Pablo $319k Gut, $41k In + Pittsburg Refresh, Antioch Bid, San Jose Bid
Four live Bay Area flips. Featured is 1413 Post in San Pablo: $319k list, $41k cash in, $540k ARV, $115k gut. About 134% on cash if a 5-month hold holds. Marks is a Pittsburg refresh that still prints at list. W 9th fails at list. Write $310k or walk. 18th Street is the same story in San Jose. Bid $790k or pass.
Financing note
Fix and flips on this issue assume a 10% down hard money lender at 9.95% interest-only, 1-year term. Rehab is lender-funded. Cash in is 10% down plus 3% purchase costs. Interest is in the profit, not cash in. ROI is on cash in only. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. W 9th and 18th Street are bid-price. Those two cards show the bid in the headline metrics. List fails conservative on both.
FEATURED FLIPPITTSBURG REFRESHANTIOCH BIDSAN JOSE BID
FEATURED FLIP7.8/10
1413 Post Ave, San Pablo, CA 94806
rehab & flip · San Pablo gut$319,000
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$24,300 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 1BA · 1,284 sq.ft. · 1950 · 3,049 lot
OPPORTUNITY
Back on market. The listing is written for a gut. 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,284 sqft on a 3,049 sqft lot. Cut $369k to $319k on August 13. Nearby 3/2 Meadowlark sold $554k and still needs work. Manor 3/1 sold $540k in January. Do not use Hilltop Moyers $650k as ARV.
RISK
West County. Tiny lot. Full gut. Prior fall-out. 2903 18th sold $465k as a 3/2 pre-probate. That is a floor, not an exit.
VERDICT
Best risk-adjusted Bay Area flip on this board. Write at or near list. Cap $350k.
PITTSBURG REFRESH6.8/10
128 Marks Blvd, Pittsburg, CA 94565
rehab & flip · Pittsburg refresh$400,000
UNDERWRITING
Rehab Est.
$70,000 refresh
Sell costs
$24,300 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
4BR / 2BA · 1,375 sq.ft. · 1948
OPPORTUNITY
4 bed, 2 bath, 1,375 sqft. Listed August 20 as a Pittsburg fixer. 85 photos. The copy reads refresh, not demo. Haircut ARV to $540k against 2123 Carquinez 4/2 1,438 sf at $560k (better lot, solar, maintained). Do not use 1335 Pine $605k (4/3 plus ADU, old).
RISK
Light distress. If the photos are honest you are paying for a paint-and-floor job, not a spread. Thin if rehab creeps.
VERDICT
Buy at list only as a refresh. Walk above $415k. Gut guys should pass.
ANTIOCH BID7.0/10
1321 W 9th St, Antioch, CA 94509
rehab & flip · bid-price$310,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
List
$339,950 (fails ~-$18k)
Sell costs
$20,250 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
2BR / 1BA · 910 sq.ft. · 1947
OPPORTUNITY
2 bed, 1 bath, 910 sqft. As-is contractor special, listed August 18, no cut. 310 W Madill 2/1 906 sf sold $410k on August 25. That sale was maintained, with a workshop and leased solar. It is not a flip exit. Conservative renovated 2/1 ARV is $450k. Stretch $475k still thin at list.
RISK
2/1 product. Madill just printed a $410k ceiling on the same bed count. A bidding war back to list kills it.
VERDICT
Pass at list. Write $310k or walk. Do not pay $340k.
SAN JOSE BID7.5/10
188 N 18th St, San Jose, CA 95112
rehab & flip · Japantown bid-price$790,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
List
$850,000 (fails ~-$15k on $1.065M ARV)
Sell costs
$47,925 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,456 sq.ft. · 1920 · 3,400 lot · unpermitted 2nd bath
OPPORTUNITY
3 bed, 2 bath, 1,456 sqft on a 3,400 sqft lot. Fixer. R2. Central San Jose / Japantown / SJSU rent demand. Conservative ARV $1.065M from 114 Hollywood Ave 3/2 1,470 remodeled at $1.065M (February, stale). Second bath permits are unknown.
RISK
Unpermitted 2nd bath. 1920 systems. Tiny lot. Stale primary comp. At list the conservative case does not print.
VERDICT
Pass at list. Write $780k-$800k or pass. Do not pay $850k.
Status Verification
Underwritten August 30, 2026 PT from live listing pages and same-zip sales. Rehab numbers are assumptions, not contractor bids. Featured and Marks are at list. W 9th and 18th Street show a bid in the headline because list fails conservative. Acora is not affiliated with the listings.
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