Issue #174September 5, 2026
$65k Into a Martinez Alhambra Oaks Fixer
Four live Bay Area flips. Featured is 3214 Pine in Martinez: $499.9k list, $65k cash in, $700k ARV, $110k reno. About 31% on cash if a 5-month hold holds. Ludlow is a San Ramon at-list pass. Diehl and Sequoia fail at list. Those two cards show the bid in the headline.
Financing note
Fix and flips on this issue assume a 10% down hard money lender at 9.95% interest-only, 1-year term. Rehab is lender-funded. Cash in is 10% down plus 3% purchase costs. Interest is in the profit, not cash in. ROI is on cash in only. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. Bid-price cards (Diehl and Sequoia) show the bid in the headline because list fails conservative. Ludlow is an at-list pass. Diehl has Special Conditions: Conservatorship plus Notice of Default. Sequoia fails at $495k list.
FEATURED FLIPSAN RAMON PASSPITTSBURG BIDSEQUOIA BID
FEATURED FLIP
3214 Pine St, Martinez, CA 94553
rehab & flip · Alhambra Oaks fixer$499,900
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$31,500 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 1BA · ~1,004 sq.ft. · 6,900 lot
OPPORTUNITY
Active $499,900. 3 bed, 1 bath, about 1,004 sqft on a 6,900 sqft lot. Listed August 31. MLS 41146166. Alhambra Oaks fixer. ARV assumes a bath add to 3/2 at $700k.
RISK
1 bath caps ARV if you do not add a bath. Rehab is an assumption. Confirm bath-add feasibility before you stretch to $700k.
VERDICT
Best at-list print on this board. Write at or near list. Add the bath or the $700k ARV does not hold.
SAN RAMON PASS
274 Ludlow Pl, San Ramon, CA 94583
rehab & flip · at-list pass$998,000
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$69,750 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
4BR / 2BA · ~1,795 sq.ft. · ~7,000 lot · no HOA
OPPORTUNITY
Active $998,000. 4 bed, 2 bath, about 1,795 sqft on a 7,000 sqft lot in Rancho Ramon. Listed September 1. MLS 41146507. Fixer Upper / court / no HOA. Open house September 5 and 6, 1:00–4:00 PM. Same-court renovated 270 Ludlow Pl sold $1,548,000 June 30, 2026 (MLS 41135542) on the same 4/2, 1,795 sf floorplan.
RISK
ARV $1.55M leans hard on the renovated same-court sale. If exit is softer at around $1.5M, math compresses. Rehab is an estimate, not a bid. Confirm systems and scope.
VERDICT
Clears at list on this stack if the $1.55M ARV holds. Write at or near list. Stretch offer only if comps still support.
PITTSBURG BID
300 Diehl Way, Pittsburg, CA 94565
rehab & flip · NOD + conservatorship bid-price$580,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
List
$660,000 (fails; cut from $675k)
Sell costs
$35,100 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
Special Conditions: Conservatorship + Notice of Default
OPPORTUNITY
Special Conditions: Conservatorship plus Notice of Default. List cut from $675k to $660k. Conservative ARV $780k. NOD plus conservatorship can create motivated sellers and process risk.
RISK
List $660k fails conservative. Conservatorship and NOD add title and timing risk. Rehab is an assumption. ARV is conservative.
VERDICT
Pass at list. Write $580k or walk. Price the conservatorship and NOD risk into the bid.
SEQUOIA BID
176 Sequoia Dr, Pittsburg, CA 94565
rehab & flip · bid-price$440,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$26,550 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
4-month hold · Pittsburg flip
OPPORTUNITY
Pittsburg flip at a $440k bid against a $590k ARV. 4-month hold. List $495k does not clear the conservative filter.
RISK
List $495k fails conservative. Rehab is an assumption. Keep ARV honest at $590k.
VERDICT
Pass at list. Write $440k or walk. Keep the 4-month hold tight.
Status Verification
Underwritten September 5, 2026 PT from live listing pages and same-zip sales. Rehab numbers are assumptions, not contractor bids. Featured and Ludlow are at list. Diehl and Sequoia show a bid in the headline because list fails conservative. Acora is not affiliated with the listings.
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