Issue #181October 6, 2026
Richmond $249k fixer — ~$70k Net at List
Four Bay Area flips. Featured is 530 4th St in Richmond: $249k list, $32k cash in, $480k ARV, $100k rehab. About 215% on cash on a 12-month hold. About $70k net at list. Stanford Heights (SF) clears at list but is stress-sensitive. Cutting (Richmond) and Grass Valley (San Jose) fail at list. Those cards show the bid in the headline.
Financing note
Fix and flips on this issue assume a 10% down hard money lender at 9.95% interest-only, 1-year term. Rehab is lender-funded. Cash in is 10% down plus 3% purchase costs. Interest is in the profit, not cash in. ROI is on cash in only. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. Every card carries a full 12 months of interest. Bid-price cards show the bid in the headline because list fails conservative. 530 4th and Stanford Heights are PASS at list, not bids.
FEATURED FLIPSAN FRANCISCO PASSRICHMOND BIDSAN JOSE BID
FEATURED FLIP
530 4th St, Richmond, CA 94801
rehab & flip · Richmond · cash-only fixer$249,000
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$21,600 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,104 sq.ft. · built 1990 · 2,700 sf lot
OPPORTUNITY
Active $249,000 cash-only fixer near Richmond's Iron Triangle. 3/2, 1,104 sf, built 1990, on a 2,700 sf lot. Renovated 2/1s nearby closed $520k–$535k this summer, two of them in late September. Conservative $480k ARV / $100k rehab, set under that band even though this is a bigger 3/2.
RISK
About 60 days on market at $249k is a tell. Expect something undisclosed: title, occupancy, foundation, or unpermitted work. Listing photos show almost no detail. Some sites still show an older $375k listing for the same address; the live one is $249k. Stress ARV $450k / rehab $120k still nets about $19k. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Feature at list. Biggest spread-to-price on the board. Walk it hard before writing.
SAN FRANCISCO PASS
88 Stanford Heights Ave, San Francisco, CA 94127
rehab & flip · San Francisco PASS at list · stress-sensitive$959,000
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$67,500 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
4BR / 3BA · 1,612 sq.ft. · built 1964 · 2-car garage
OPPORTUNITY
Active $959,000 view home in Miraloma / Stanford Heights, taken down to the studs. 4/3, 1,612 sf, built 1964, 2-car garage. Same-street 22 Stanford Heights closed $2.5M in September. Renovated 3/2s nearby closed $1.7M–$2.4M this year. Conservative $1.50M ARV / $275k rebuild.
RISK
Notice of default, sold as-is, subject to lender confirmation, so timing can slip and carry can grow. Studs-out scope and SF permits can run over. Stress ARV $1.40M / rehab $300k goes negative. Do not stretch past list. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
PASS at list, stress-sensitive. Write at or under list only if the walk confirms the rebuild at or under $275k.
RICHMOND BID
4121 E Cutting Blvd, Richmond, CA 94804
rehab & flip · Richmond bid-price (list fails)$310,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$28,800 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
4BR / 1.5BA · 1,425 sq.ft. · built 1963 · attached garage
OPPORTUNITY
Active $395,000 fire-damaged 4-bed in Park Plaza, listed about Oct 1 and sold in present condition. Headline is Bid $310k. Renovated Park Plaza 4/2s closed $556k–$675k this year. Bid $310k vs $640k ARV / $180k full fire restore, including converting the half bath to a full.
RISK
List fails (about −$28.9k). Fire scope is unseen, so price it as a full gut. The 1.5-bath layout caps the exit unless you add a full bath. At ARV $600k / rehab $200k the bid thins to about $6k. Check insurance, open permits, and restore vs rebuild before closing. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Fail at list. Write $310k or walk.
SAN JOSE BID
3475 Grass Valley Ct, San Jose, CA 95127
rehab & flip · San Jose bid-price (list fails)$800,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
Sell costs
$53,100 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,176 sq.ft. · built 1976 · 6,160 sf lot · 2-car garage
OPPORTUNITY
Active $875,000 contractor special on an East Foothills cul-de-sac, already cut from $975k. Headline is Bid $800k. Renovated 3/2s on nearby Golf Dr and Cedar Ln closed $1.105M–$1.30M this year. Bid $800k vs $1.18M ARV / $160k rehab.
RISK
List fails (about −$28.6k). Santa Clara County fixers draw bidding wars, so a bid $75k under list may lose. At ARV $1.12M / rehab $175k the bid goes negative. Confirm roof and HVAC age and any unpermitted work. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Fail at list. Write $800k or walk.
Status Verification
All four verified on October 4, 2026 at about 3:52pm PT from live listing pages: 530 4th St $249,000 Active, 88 Stanford Heights Ave $959,000 Active, 4121 E Cutting Blvd $395,000 Active (headline is $310k bid), 3475 Grass Valley Ct $875,000 Active (headline is $800k bid). ARVs are set under nearby sold comps (recent MLS closed sales). Rehab numbers are assumptions from listing photos and text, not contractor bids. Dealsletter is not affiliated with the listings.
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