Oakland $450k Fixer — ~$132k Net at List

OPPORTUNITY

Active $450,000 fixer in 94602, on the Upper Fruitvale and Dimond edge. 5 bd / 2 ba, 2,131 sf, 1914 Craftsman, 4,000 sf lot, attached garage. The listing says it needs significant updating. Photos show a stripped kitchen, worn original floors, and an old floor furnace with no AC. Renovated homes nearby closed $975k to $1.005M this year. Conservative $925k ARV, under three of four comps even though this is the biggest house in the set. The $225k rehab covers kitchen, baths, forced air, a systems allowance, floors, and paint.

RISK

Priced to start a bidding war, with open houses through Oct 18, so expect it to go over list. It still nets about $60k up to roughly $515k. Foundation, sewer lateral, and knob-and-tube wiring are unknown. Square footage varies by source. A $750k sale nearby (condition unknown) shows the floor if the finish is weak. Under stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) it still nets about $51k. Rehab is an assumption.

VERDICT

Feature at list. Deepest spread on the board. Don't stretch past about $515k without an inspection.

OPPORTUNITY

Active $899,000 fixer in the Outer Parkside, marketed as a fixer-upper for developers and contractors. 3 bd / 1 ba, 1,150 sf, built 1944, on an extra-wide 2,818 sf corner lot with a 1-car garage and an unfinished ground level. Photos show a 1940s knotty-pine kitchen, an original pink-tile bath, cracked plaster, worn floors, and old wiring and plumbing exposed downstairs. Renovated homes within 0.7 mi closed $1.60M to $2.00M in the last four months. Conservative $1.70M ARV, under three of four comps, because this is the last block before the Great Highway. The $275k rehab at SF labor covers kitchen, bath, a permitted second bath, a systems allowance, plaster, floors, windows, and stucco. No ground-floor or corner-lot value is counted.

RISK

Priced to start a bidding war. It drew lots of saves within hours of listing, so it will likely be bid well over list. Each $10k over list costs about $11k of net. It still nets about $100k up to roughly $1.09M. Under stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) it still nets about $188k at list. Other risks are coastal wear on windows and stucco, a possible sewer lateral, and SF permit timelines for the second bath. Rehab is an assumption.

VERDICT

Feature at list. Expect it to be bid well over list. Walk away above about $1.09M.

OPPORTUNITY

Active $399,000 fixer in East Oakland, marketed as a fixer property. 3 bd / 1.5 ba Craftsman bungalow, built 1923, on a 3,700 sf lot with a driveway and detached garage. Heat is a wall furnace, there is no AC, and no appliances are included. Nearby 3 and 4 bed homes closed $725k to $775k this summer. Conservative $725k ARV, at or under all four. The $150k rehab covers kitchen, both baths, forced air, a systems allowance for a 1923 house, floors, and paint. Garage ADU upside is not counted.

RISK

Square footage varies by source. The listing says over 1,400 sf, but one source shows about 1,015 sf, and the comps run 1,342 to 1,753 sf, so verify before you write. Open houses Oct 10 and 11 could push it over list. It still nets about $60k up to roughly $417k. Under stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) it still nets about $21k at list. Break-even at list is roughly a $640k ARV. Rehab is an assumption.

VERDICT

Feature at list. Holds up under stress. Don't go past about $415k.

OPPORTUNITY

Active $1,200,000 Willow Glen fixer, listed in Fixer Upper condition. 2 bd / 1 ba, 1,266 sf, built 1939, on an 8,784 sf creek-backed lot (flood cert says no flood insurance required) with a large garage and workshop. Photos show stained and peeling walls, an original kitchen, and a dated bath. Renovated 2/2 and 3/2 homes nearby closed $1.50M to $1.76M this year. Conservative $1.55M ARV for a renovated 3/2. The $200k rehab carves out a third bedroom and second bath. Lot premium and ADU upside are not counted.

RISK

Stress-sensitive. List $1,200,000 loses about $83k. At the bid, if ARV comes in 5% low and rehab runs 15% over, this goes to about −$22k. Break-even at the bid is roughly a $1.46M ARV. The bid is 12.5% under a fresh list with open houses Oct 10 and 11, so it may not be accepted. County and listing square footage disagree. Creek setbacks could limit an expansion. Rehab is an assumption.

VERDICT

Fail at list. Write $1.05M or walk. Walk away above about $1.075M.