Issue #186October 21, 2026
Berkeley $699k Fixer — $170k Net Profit Even at $1.0M
Four Bay Area flips. List is bait on Berkeley and the Sunset, so we underwrite the walk-away. 1906 Vine St (Berkeley) nets about $170k at a $1.0M walk-away and 1862 20th Ave (San Francisco) about $212k at $1.35M. 596 Walnut St (San Bruno) works at list on the base case but is thin under stress. 1106 Monroe St (Santa Clara) loses money at list and only works as a $1.05M bid.
Financing note
Every card assumes a 10% down hard money loan at 9.95% interest-only, with rehab lender-funded. Every card carries a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus purchase closing costs. ROI is on cash in. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. Vine and 20th Ave show list numbers plus a walk-away price because they will likely sell well over list. Walnut is stress-sensitive at list. Monroe is priced at the bid because list loses money.
BERKELEY FEATURESUNSET FEATURESAN BRUNO STRESS-SENSITIVESANTA CLARA BID
FEATURED FLIP · NORTH BERKELEY
1906 Vine St, Berkeley, CA 94709
rehab & flip · North Berkeley · walk away at $1.0M$699,000
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$90,870
Total Profit
$507,315
ROI
558%
Annualized ROI
~558%
List
$699,000 (bait, won't trade there)
Walk-away
$1,000,000: $130,000 cash in · ~$170.3k net · 131% ROI
ARV
$1,650,000
Rehab Est.
$260,000
Sell costs
$74,250 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
2BR / 1BA · 1,178 sq.ft. · built 1924 · 4,400 sf lot · detached structure
FINANCING
Down
$69,900
Purchase costs
$20,970
Loan
$889,100
IO 12 mo
$88,465
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Active $699,000 fixer in North Berkeley's Gourmet District. 2 bd / 1 ba, 1,178 sf, built 1924, on a 4,400 sf lot, plus a detached structure the listing says buyer to investigate. Nearby 3-beds sold $1.80M to $1.875M since June: 1629 Jaynes St ($1.80M, Sep), 1370 Hearst Ave ($1.875M, Sep), 1429 Edith St ($1.87M, Jun). A 900 sf 2/1 at 1615 Buena Ave sold $1.625M in August. Conservative $1.65M ARV (about $1,400/sf), under every 3-bed comp, for a 2/2 or tight 3/1 finish with no addition. The $260k rehab covers kitchen, bath, electrical and plumbing, a foundation and seismic allowance for a 1924 house, and the detached structure as-is or removed.
RISK
North Berkeley fixers clear far over ask, so price this at what you'd pay, not at list. At $1.0M, stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) still leaves about $48.7k. Past that the margin goes fast. Permit status of the detached structure is unknown. Foundation and sewer on a 1924 house are unknown until inspected. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Feature. Real spread, but the number that matters is the walk-away. Stop at about $1.0M.
FEATURED FLIP · CENTRAL SUNSET
1862 20th Ave, San Francisco, CA 94122
rehab & flip · Central Sunset trust sale · walk away at $1.35M$988,000
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$128,440
Total Profit
$617,285
ROI
481%
Annualized ROI
~481%
List
$988,000 (bait, won't trade there)
Walk-away
$1,350,000: $175,500 cash in · ~$212.0k net · 121% ROI
ARV
$2,150,000
Rehab Est.
$300,000
Sell costs
$96,750 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 1BA per MLS (remarks say 2BR) · 1,652 sq.ft. · built 1931 · 3,000 sf RH-1 lot
FINANCING
Down
$98,800
Purchase costs
$29,640
Loan
$1,189,200
IO 12 mo
$118,325
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Active $988,000 trust sale, same owner since 1994. MLS shows 3 bd / 1 ba (remarks say 2 bedrooms), 1,652 sf, built 1931, on a 3,000 sf RH-1 lot with a partly finished basement. Kitchen was updated and the roof is from 2025, so this is a dated house, not a shell. West-side sales: 1362 21st Ave 3/2 sold $2.675M on Oct 15, 2171 12th Ave $2.82M, 75 Aloha Ave $3.408M, 1250 27th Ave $3.201M. Conservative $2.15M ARV (about $1,300/sf), well under comps at $1,427 to $1,714/sf, for a 3/2. The $300k rehab adds a second bath, floors, paint, electrical and plumbing updates and a basement cleanup, and keeps the kitchen and roof.
RISK
SF is selling around 115% of list and west-side houses are clearing 30% to 60% over ask, so expect a crowd. At $1.35M, stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) still leaves about $59.9k. Bedroom count needs confirming. Adding a bath means permits and plan review. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Feature. Big spread on paper. Write your number and stop at about $1.35M.
STRESS-SENSITIVE FLIP · SAN BRUNO
596 Walnut St, San Bruno, CA 94066
rehab & flip · Belle Air relist · thin under stress$758,888
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$98,655
Total Profit
$76,487
ROI
78%
Annualized ROI
~78%
List
$758,888 (about -$13.8k under stress)
Target
$720,000: ~$120.0k net · stress still about $29.7k
ARV
$1,200,000
Rehab Est.
$200,000
Sell costs
$54,000 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 2.5BA · 1,590 sq.ft. · built 1936 · 5,000 sf corner lot · RV access
FINANCING
Down
$75,889
Purchase costs
$22,766
Loan
$882,999
IO 12 mo
$87,858
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Active $758,888 relist in Belle Air, down from $999,888 when it was on the market in February. 3 bd / 2.5 ba, 1,590 sf on three levels including a lower-level bonus room with a full bath, built 1936, on a 5,000 sf corner lot with dual driveways and RV access. Marketed to investors as a sweat-equity house. Nearby: 857 7th Ave 3/2 1,220 sf sold $1.10M in June, 0.12 mi away; 510 Pine St 3/1 $1.05M; 750 Magnolia Ave 3/1 $1.30M; 1225 Park Ave 4/3 2,120 sf $1.738M. Conservative $1.20M ARV (about $755/sf) with the lower level discounted. The $200k rehab covers kitchen, baths, floors, paint and a systems allowance.
RISK
Thinnest card on the board. ARV 5% low by itself drops it to about $19.2k at list, and with rehab 15% over too it goes negative. The lower level may not count fully at resale. It already failed to sell at $999,888 this year. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Feature, stress-sensitive. Works at list on the base case only. Aim for about $720k and don't pay over list.
SANTA CLARA BID · OLD QUAD
1106 Monroe St, Santa Clara, CA 95050
rehab & flip · Old Quad bid-price (list loses money)$1,050,000 bid
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$136,500
Total Profit
$198,858
ROI
146%
Annualized ROI
~146%
List
$1,275,000 (loses about $53.0k)
Bid
$1,050,000 (ceiling about $1.07M)
ARV
$1,750,000
Rehab Est.
$270,000
Sell costs
$78,750 (4.5% of ARV)
Size
3BR / 1BA · 1,248 sq.ft. · built 1895 · 5,610 sf lot
FINANCING
Down
$105,000
Purchase costs
$31,500
Loan
$1,215,000
IO 12 mo
$120,892
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Active $1,275,000 renovation project in the Old Quad, sold in its present condition, and already cut from $1.325M. 3 bd / 1 ba, 1,248 sf, built 1895, on a 5,610 sf lot. Larger 3-beds nearby sold $1.85M to $2.324M: 1226 Chapel Dr $2.214M on Oct 13, 1862 Homestead Rd $2.065M on Oct 8, 935 Circle Dr $2.324M, 1274 Carmel Way $1.85M. Conservative $1.75M ARV (about $1,400/sf) for a 3/2, discounted because the comps are 300+ sf larger. The $270k rehab adds a bath and a full interior, with foundation and electrical allowances.
RISK
An 1895 house can hide foundation, wiring and sewer problems. Old Quad historic review can add time and cost. A bid 18% under list may not land. Under stress (ARV 5% lower, rehab 15% higher) at the bid it still nets about $70.8k. Ceiling is about $1.07M. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Loses money at list. Write $1.05M, stretch to about $1.07M max, or walk.
Status Verification
All four listings were re-verified Active on October 18, 2026 on Redfin and Zillow, plus the listing broker or MLSListings where available: 1906 Vine St at $699,000, 1862 20th Ave at $988,000, 596 Walnut St at $758,888 and 1106 Monroe St at $1,275,000. Vine and 20th Ave will likely sell well over list, so those cards show a walk-away price. Walnut is stress-sensitive at list. Monroe is a bid card because list loses money. ARVs are set at or under nearby sold comps. Rehab is an assumption from listing photos and text, not a contractor bid. Buyers do their own due diligence. Dealsletter is not affiliated with the listings.
Three or four deals like these, underwritten end to end, every week. Free forever.
get the next issue →Get the next issue free
Real underwriting, honest verdicts — straight to your inbox every week.