#188: $150k fixer that nets $100k. Bidding war incoming

OPPORTUNITY

At list $149,900: cash in $19,487. Rehab $95k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $100.2k. 514% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $111.6k. Active at $149,900, new last week. 3 bd / 1 ba, 1,094 sf, built 1947, 20x40 detached garage. Sold comps: 7570 Orange Dr $420,000, 7420 Evening Way $420,000, 7340 Grand Oaks Blvd $360,000, 7424 Pimienta Dr $475,000. $390k ARV ($356/sf) sits under the two closest-size sales at $420k, with no credit for a second bath. $95k rehab: kitchen, bath, floors, paint, roof and HVAC allowance, electrical and plumbing contingency. Sold comps: 7570 Orange Dr (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Citrus-Heights/7570-Orange-Dr-95610/home/19252770); 7420 Evening Way (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Citrus-Heights/7420-Evening-Way-95621/home/19257083); 7340 Grand Oaks Blvd (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Citrus-Heights/7340-Grand-Oaks-Blvd-95621/home/19017563); 7424 Pimienta Dr (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Citrus-Heights/7424-Pimienta-Dr-95621/home/19254173).

RISK

Expect a bidding war. The list-price net is a ceiling, not a forecast. At $195k, stress still leaves about $15.4k. Stress hits zero near $209k. Significant rehab could mean structural work. Inspect before you remove contingencies. Sits on Antelope Rd, a collector street.

VERDICT

Feature. Biggest spread on the board. Expect a crowd and stop at about $195k.

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $725k bid, not list. List $750,000 nets about $86.4k (89% ROI) but fails stress. At $725,000: cash in $94,250. Rehab $200k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $114.4k. 121% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $156.8k. Active $750,000 short sale. 2 bd / 2 ba, 1,212 sf, built 1957, 8,073 sf lot. Sold comps: 3306 Henrietta Ave $1,225,000, 3338 Paraiso Way $1,216,000, 3753 Pontiac St $1,005,000, 3631 Brookhill Ter $1,400,000 (ceiling). $1.2M ARV ($990/sf) as a 2/2, under every comp's $/sf and under the 3-bed sales. $200k rehab covers every system the listing calls out, from kitchen and baths to HVAC and roof. Sold comps: 3306 Henrietta Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta/3306-Henrietta-Ave-91214/home/7137605); 3338 Paraiso Way (https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta/3338-Paraiso-Way-91214/home/7137666); 3753 Pontiac St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta/3753-Pontiac-St-91214/home/7138970); 3631 Brookhill Ter (https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta/3631-Brookhill-Ter-91214/home/7137281).

RISK

Short sale: lender approval can take 60 to 120+ days, and the bank may counter or reject. Fails stress at list: about -$3.8k at $750,000. At the $725k bid, stress still leaves about $24.1k. Stress hits zero near $747k. Plan on a slow timeline and keep your other deals moving.

VERDICT

Bid $725k. Walk away at about $733k, where stress still clears $15k.

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $560k bid, not list. List $600,000 nets about $46.7k (60% ROI) but fails stress. At $560,000: cash in $72,800. Rehab $150k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $91.5k. 126% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $124.0k. Active $600,000, sold strictly as-is with extensive repairs. 3 bd / 2 ba, 1,368 sf, built 1912. Sold comps: 4624 W 116th St $750,000 (floor), 5041 W 123rd Pl $900,000, 5456 W 118th Pl $990,000, 5338 W 119th St $1,115,000. The higher sales are in richer Holly Park and Del Aire, so the $925k ARV ($676/sf) is set well under their $/sf. $150k rehab is a complete renovation. Sold comps: 4624 W 116th St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hawthorne/4624-W-116th-St-90250/home/6493951); 5041 W 123rd Pl (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hawthorne/5041-W-123rd-Pl-90250/home/6666521); 5456 W 118th Pl (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Inglewood/5456-W-118th-Pl-90304/home/6663742); 5338 W 119th St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Inglewood/5338-W-119th-St-90304/home/6664144).

RISK

Fails stress at list: about -$22.2k at $600,000. At the $560k bid, stress still leaves about $22.6k. Only 2 sold comps within 0.6 mi. Under the LAX flight path. Built 1912, so pull the permit history.

VERDICT

Bid $560k. Walk away at about $567k, where stress still clears $15k.

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $370k bid, not list. List $400,000 nets about $26.2k (50% ROI) but fails stress. At $370,000: cash in $48,100. Rehab $90k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $59.8k. 124% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $80.9k. Active $400,000, 28 days on market. 2 bd / 2 ba, 896 sf, built 1926, needs extensive renovation. Sold comps: 630 E 119th St (across the street) $640,000, 728 E 121st St $585,000, 11506 Wadsworth Ave $585,000, 810 E 118th St (3 bed) $685,000. $600k ARV sits inside the 2-bed band of $585k to $640k. $90k rehab (about $100/sf) is a full interior on a small house. Sold comps: 630 E 119th St (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/630-E-119th-St-Los-Angeles-CA-90059/20975826_zpid/); 728 E 121st St (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/728-E-121st-St-Los-Angeles-CA-90059/20976823_zpid/); 11506 Wadsworth Ave (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11506-Wadsworth-Ave-Los-Angeles-CA-90059/20970932_zpid/); 810 E 118th St (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/810-E-118th-St-Los-Angeles-CA-90059/20975982_zpid/).

RISK

Fails stress at list: about -$17.3k at $400,000. At the $370k bid, stress still leaves about $16.3k. Stress hits zero near $385k. Small house, so a few thousand of overrun moves the result. 28 days at $400k helps a lower offer, but the seller may hold.

VERDICT

Bid $370k. List is too thin. Walk away at about $371k.