Issue #189October 27, 2026
#189: San Jose $999k fixer. $278k net profit at list price!
Four Bay Area flips. 426 S Henry Ave (San Jose) nets about $278k at its $999k list and still clears $153k under stress. 1149 Berkeley Ave (Menlo Park) is thin at list. 2531 Illinois St (East Palo Alto) and 4 Green St (Martinez) only work as bids.
Financing note
Every card assumes a 10% down hard money loan at 9.95% interest-only, with rehab lender-funded. Every card carries a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs. ROI is on cash in. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. Henry and Berkeley are priced at list. Illinois and Green are priced at the bid because list fails stress.
SAN JOSE FEATUREMENLO PARK STRESS-SENSITIVEEAST PALO ALTO BIDMARTINEZ BID
FEATURED FLIP · SAN JOSE
426 S Henry Ave, San Jose, CA 95117
rehab & flip · at list$999K
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$130K
Total Profit
$278K
ROI
214%
ARV
$1.75M
Rehab Est.
$250K
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
At list $999,000: cash in $129,870. Rehab $250k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $277.9k. 214% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $335.1k. Active $999,000 fixer near Santana Row. 3 bd / 1 ba, 1,144 sf, built 1947, 7,104 sf lot. Sold comps: 361 Fenley Ave $1,938,000, 149 Tyler Ave $1,850,000, 651 Larkmead Ct $1,850,000, 3540 Forest Ave $1,960,000. $1.75M ARV (about $1,530/sf) sits under the 3/2 comps because this house is smaller. $250k rehab: full cosmetic, mechanicals, and a second bath to match the comps. Sold comps: 361 Fenley Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/361-Fenley-Ave-95117/home/982965); 149 Tyler Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Clara/149-Tyler-Ave-95050/home/846843); 651 Larkmead Ct (https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/651-Larkmead-Ct-95117/home/885761); 3540 Forest Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Clara/3540-Forest-Ave-95050/home/1292864).
RISK
Listing says cash terms. Confirm your lender can close with no financing contingency. Open houses ran this weekend. Expect multiple offers. Stress hits zero near $1.135M. That is the ceiling, not a target. The second bath drives layout and permit work. Scope it before you bid.
VERDICT
Feature. Biggest spread on the board. Walk away at about $1.135M.
MENLO PARK · STRESS-SENSITIVE
1149 Berkeley Ave, Menlo Park, CA 94025
rehab & flip · at list$998K
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$130K
Total Profit
$95K
ROI
73%
ARV
$1.5M
Rehab Est.
$200K
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
At list $998,000: cash in $129,740. Rehab $200k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $95.3k. 73% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $149.9k. Active $998,000 in Belle Haven, original condition, sold as-is. 3 bd / 2 ba, 1,300 sf, built 1951, 5,830 sf lot. Sold comps: 1140 Berkeley Ave (across the street) $1,535,625, 1148 Berkeley Ave $1,580,000, 1150 Sevier Ave $1,500,000, 224 Ivy Dr $1,749,000 (ceiling). $1.5M ARV sits under the sale across the street. $200k rehab: kitchen, both baths, floors, paint, panel, landscaping. Already a 3/2. Sold comps: 1140 Berkeley Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/1140-Berkeley-Ave-94025/home/857605); 1148 Berkeley Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/1148-Berkeley-Ave-94025/home/1625287); 1150 Sevier Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/1150-Sevier-Ave-94025/home/1144902); 224 Ivy Dr (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Menlo-Park/224-Ivy-Dr-94025/home/1591641).
RISK
Fails stress at list: about -$9.3k. Stress hits zero near $990k, so don't pay over list. Sunrun solar lease, 13 years left (prepaid). Assume it or budget about $10k to $15k to buy it out. Water notes list a domestic well. Verify. Thin margin. A small rehab overrun eats it.
VERDICT
Feature, stress-sensitive. List or under only. Walk away at about $990k.
EAST PALO ALTO BID · AS-IS
2531 Illinois St, East Palo Alto, CA 94303
rehab & flip · bid-price$825K bid
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$107K
Total Profit
$127K
ROI
119%
ARV
$1.25M
Rehab Est.
$130K
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Headline is the $825k bid, not list. List $899,900 nets about $43.3k (37% ROI) but fails stress. At $825,000: cash in $107,250. Rehab $130k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $127.2k. 119% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $170.6k. Active $899,900, sold as-is. 3 bd / 1 ba, 1,010 sf, built 1952, 6,000 sf lot. Sold comps: 16 Clarence Ct $1,275,000, 2551 Emmett Way $1,276,000, 2390 Ralmar Ave $1,305,000, 470 Bell St $1,025,000 (floor). $1.25M ARV sits under the three recent 3/2 sales. $130k rehab (about $129/sf) on a small single-level house. Sold comps: 16 Clarence Ct (https://www.redfin.com/CA/East-Palo-Alto/16-Clarence-Ct-94303/home/1793519); 2551 Emmett Way (https://www.redfin.com/CA/East-Palo-Alto/2551-Emmett-Way-94303/home/862020); 2390 Ralmar Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/East-Palo-Alto/2390-Ralmar-Ave-94303/home/17309193); 470 Bell St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/East-Palo-Alto/470-Bell-St-94303/home/867904).
RISK
Fails stress at list: about -$37.8k at $899,900. At the $825k bid, stress still leaves about $46.1k. Stress hits zero near $866k. Listing sites tag it bank-owned (REO). Expect as-is terms and bank addenda. Every comp is a 3/2. This is a 3/1.
VERDICT
Bid $825k. List is too thin. Walk away at about $866k.
MARTINEZ BID · 1916 FIXER
4 Green St, Martinez, CA 94553
rehab & flip · bid-price$408K bid
UNDERWRITING
Cash In
$53K
Total Profit
$74K
ROI
140%
ARV
$740K
Rehab Est.
$160K
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
Hold
12 months
OPPORTUNITY
Headline is the $408k bid, not list. List $499,000 loses about $27.9k. At $408,000: cash in $53,040. Rehab $160k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $74.0k. 140% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $100.2k. Active $499,000 downtown, as-is, needs substantial repairs. 3 bd / 2 ba, about 1,200 sf, built 1916. Sale includes an adjoining ~1,800 sf vacant parcel (separate APN). The ARV gives it zero value. Sold comps: 10 Green St (same block) $775,000, 1160 Arlington Way $839,000, 125 Foster St $745,000, 1724 Alhambra Ave $750,000. $740k ARV. $160k rehab: foundation allowance, central heat, electrical, plumbing, kitchen and baths. Sold comps: 10 Green St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Martinez/10-Green-St-94553/home/687010); 1160 Arlington Way (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Martinez/1160-Arlington-Way-94553/home/1056595); 125 Foster St (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Martinez/125-Foster-St-94553/home/722295); 1724 Alhambra Ave (https://www.redfin.com/CA/Martinez/1724-Alhambra-Ave-94553/home/1776630).
RISK
Loses about $27.9k at list. At the $408k bid, stress still leaves about $12.3k. Stress hits zero near $419k. 1916 foundation. Get a structural inspection before removing contingencies. Square footage is approximate and unverified.
VERDICT
Bid $408k. Fails at list. Walk away at about $419k.
Status Verification
Listings verified active on October 25, 2026 on Redfin and MLS or broker sites. 848 Foerster St in SF went pending before send, so 2531 Illinois St took its spot. All numbers are estimates, not advice. Do your own due diligence. Every card assumes 10% down hard money at 9.95% interest-only with rehab lender-funded and a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs, selling costs are 4.5% of ARV, and ROI is on cash in. ARVs are set from nearby public-record sold prices. Rehab is an assumption, not a contractor bid. Dealsletter is not affiliated with the listings.
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