Issue #192November 2, 2026
#192: Oakland $699k probate Victorian. ~$31k net at list
Four Bay Area flips. 568 66th St (Oakland) is a $699k probate Victorian that nets about $31k at list but fails stress, with a $562k walk-away below list. 1916 E St (Hayward), 204 N 24th St (San Jose) and 31 Laurel Ln (Richmond) only work as bids.
Financing note
Every card assumes a 10% down hard money loan at 9.95% interest-only, with rehab lender-funded. Every card carries a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs. ROI is on cash in. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. 66th St is priced at list. E St, 24th St and Laurel are priced at the bid because list fails stress or loses money.
OAKLAND FEATUREHAYWARD BIDSAN JOSE BIDRICHMOND BID
FEATURED FLIP · OAKLAND PROBATE
568 66th St, Oakland, CA 94609
rehab & flip · at list$699K
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
OPPORTUNITY
At list $699,000: cash in $90,870. Rehab $650k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $30.8k. 34% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $94.4k. Probate sale, cash terms. 6 bd / 2 ba, 2,715 sf, 1885 Victorian, 10,075 sf lot. Offers due Nov 18. Comp: 731 60th St (4/3, 2,697 sf) sold $1,993,365 in May 2026, about $739/sf. $1.6M ARV (about $589/sf) is deliberately under that comp. A possible rear ADU is not in the ARV. $650k rehab: roof, open city violations, heat and hot water, added baths.
RISK
Court confirmation with overbid. Final price can land above list and past walk-away. Fails stress at list: about -$152.8k. Stress hits zero at $562k, below list. Drive-by only. Listing says do not walk the property, so the interior is unknown. 1885 structure, foundation unknown, open violations. Rehab could run past $650k.
VERDICT
Feature, thin. Walk away at $562k. Do not chase the overbid.
HAYWARD BID · PROBATE FIXER
1916 E St, Hayward, CA 94541
rehab & flip · bid-price$470K bid
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
OPPORTUNITY
Headline is the $470k bid. List $499,000 nets about $27.1k but fails stress (-$26.4k). At $470,000: cash in $61,100. Rehab $110k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $59.6k. 97% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $86.1k. Probate fixer. 3 bd / 1.5 ba, 1,026 sf, 1953, 5,400 sf lot, detached workshop with power. Sold comps: 3250 Ridge Crest Ct $880,000 (remodeled 3/2), 23868 Fairlands Rd $750,000 (3/1). $740k ARV. $110k rehab.
RISK
Hillside lot. Check drainage and foundation. Likely needs a second full bath to reach ARV. New listing with an open house just held. Expect competition. Stress at the bid leaves about $6k.
VERDICT
Bid $470k. Walk away at $475k.
SAN JOSE BID
204 N 24th St, San Jose, CA 95116
rehab & flip · bid-price$712K bid
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
OPPORTUNITY
Headline is the $712k bid. List $849,999 loses about $66.0k. At $712,000: cash in $92,560. Rehab $150k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $88.5k. 96% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $127.8k. 3 bd / 2 ba, 1,116 sf. $1.1M ARV. $150k rehab.
RISK
Needs about a 16% cut from list. The seller may not engage. Stress at the bid leaves only about $11.2k. Stress hits zero at $722k.
VERDICT
Bid $712k. Walk away at $722k.
RICHMOND BID · PROBATE
31 Laurel Ln, Richmond, CA 94803
rehab & flip · bid-price$498K bid
FINANCING
Terms
10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded
OPPORTUNITY
Headline is the $498k bid. List $550,000 nets only about $5.3k. At $498,000: cash in $64,740. Rehab $130k lender-funded. 12-month hold, interest included. Net about $63.5k. 98% ROI. On a 6-month hold it nets about $92.3k. Probate, cash only. 2 bd / 2 ba, 1,488 sf, 1938, 0.37 ac in May Valley. $800k ARV. $130k rehab.
RISK
Septic system. Inspect it. Fell out of escrow once in October. Ask why. Stress at the bid leaves only about $3.9k. Stress hits zero at $501k.
VERDICT
Bid $498k. Walk away at $501k.
Status Verification
Status check. All four verified active on November 1, 2026 on broker and MLS sites. Underwrite: 10% down hard money at 9.95% for 12 months, 4.5% to sell. All numbers are estimates, not advice. Do your own due diligence. Every card assumes 10% down hard money at 9.95% interest-only with rehab lender-funded and a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs, selling costs are 4.5% of ARV, and ROI is on cash in. ARVs are set from nearby public-record sold prices. Rehab is an assumption, not a contractor bid. Dealsletter is not affiliated with the listings.
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