Issue #195November 9, 2026

#195: Walnut Creek 4-bed at an $850k bid. About $184k profit

Four Bay Area flips, all under-ask bids. 3055 Arbolado Dr (Walnut Creek) leads at an $850k bid with about $184k profit. 3042 Chrisland Ct (Concord), 8207 Dowling St (Oakland) and 274 N 33rd St (San Jose) only work as bids.

Financing note

Every card assumes a 10% down hard money loan at 9.95% interest-only, with rehab lender-funded. Every card carries a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs. ROI is on cash in. Sell costs are 4.5% of ARV. All four cards are priced at the under-ask bid because list fails stress or loses money.

WALNUT CREEK FEATURE BIDCONCORD BIDOAKLAND BIDSAN JOSE BID

FEATURE · WALNUT CREEK · BID

3055 Arbolado Dr, Walnut Creek, CA 94598

rehab & flip · bid-price · 12 months$850K bid

UNDERWRITING

Cash In

$110.5K

Total Profit

$184K

ROI

166.8%

ARV

$1.65M

Rehab Est.

$400K

FINANCING

Terms

10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded

Hold

12 months

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $850,000 bid. List $995,000. At $850,000: cash in $110,500. Rehab $400,000 lender-funded. 12-month hold, $115,918 interest. Sale at $1,650,000 less $74,250 selling costs. Profit $184,332, 166.8% cash-on-cash. Stress case (ARV -5%, rehab +15%) $39,575. At ask, about $22k. 4 bd / 2.5 ba, 2,376 sf, built 1978. Northgate. MLS 41152958. Finish the existing house, no expansion in the numbers. Comps: 3460 Sutcliffe Ct (4/2.5, 2,309 sf) sold $1.675M in May; 3320 Bowmore Ct (4/2, 2,332 sf) sold $1.63M in April. ARV set $25k under Sutcliffe.

RISK

Paused remodel: no kitchen, no flooring. Permit and rough-in status could force rework. Lender has to finance an unfinished house. Needs a 14.6% cut from ask. Walk away above $885k.

VERDICT

Bid $850k. About $184k on a 12-month hold. Walk away above $885k.

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BID · CONCORD · UNDER ASK

3042 Chrisland Ct, Concord, CA 94520

rehab & flip · bid-price · 12 months$350K bid

UNDERWRITING

Cash In

$45.5K

Total Profit

$71K

ROI

156.5%

ARV

$600K

Rehab Est.

$100K

FINANCING

Terms

10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded

Hold

12 months

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $350,000 bid. List $475,000. At $350,000: cash in $45,500. Rehab $100,000 lender-funded. 12-month hold, $41,292 interest. Sale at $600,000 less $27,000 selling costs. Profit $71,208, 156.5% cash-on-cash. Stress case $26,065. Loses money at ask. 3 bd / 2 ba, 1,161 sf, built 1954. MLS 41151070. Straight cosmetic renovation of a 3/2, no ADU or expansion premium. Comp: 1838 Overhill Rd, renovated 3/1 at 1,080 sf, sold $603,900 in May. ARV uses the low end, not $650k.

RISK

Needs a 26.3% cut from ask. Walk away above $373k. Wall heat and older systems need inspection. 1992 Heaton Cir at $715k had a bigger lot and garage — do not lean on it.

VERDICT

Bid $350k. About $71k on a 12-month hold. Walk away above $373k.

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BID · OAKLAND · UNDER ASK

8207 Dowling St, Oakland, CA 94605

rehab & flip · bid-price · 12 months$250K bid

UNDERWRITING

Cash In

$32.5K

Total Profit

$77K

ROI

235.9%

ARV

$500K

Rehab Est.

$110K

FINANCING

Terms

10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded

Hold

12 months

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $250,000 bid. List $380,000. At $250,000: cash in $32,500. Rehab $110,000 lender-funded. 12-month hold, $33,332 interest. Sale at $500,000 less $22,500 selling costs. Profit $76,668, 235.9% cash-on-cash. Stress case $34,651. Loses money at ask. 2 bd / 2 ba per MLS, 1,087 sf, built 1920. MLS 41152864. Lowest entry and cash in on the board. Comp: 2517 79th Ave, renovated 2/1 at 836 sf, sold $460k in August. ARV of $500k is $460/sf vs the comp at $550/sf.

RISK

Assessor shows 1 bed, MLS shows 2. Verify legal bedrooms and permits. 1920 build, only two listing photos. One primary comp, so ARV confidence is moderate to low. Needs a 34.2% cut from ask. Walk away above $280k.

VERDICT

Bid $250k. About $77k on a 12-month hold. Walk away above $280k.

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BID · SAN JOSE · UNDER ASK

274 N 33rd St, San Jose, CA 95116

rehab & flip · bid-price · 12 months$550K bid

UNDERWRITING

Cash In

$71.5K

Total Profit

$86K

ROI

120.3%

ARV

$850K

Rehab Est.

$100K

FINANCING

Terms

10% down hard money, 9.95% IO, rehab lender-funded

Hold

12 months

OPPORTUNITY

Headline is the $550,000 bid. List $849,000. At $550,000: cash in $71,500. Rehab $100,000 lender-funded. 12-month hold, $59,202 interest. Sale at $850,000 less $38,250 selling costs. Profit $86,048, 120.3% cash-on-cash. Stress case $28,968. Loses money at ask. 2 bd / 1 ba, 906 sf, built 1920. MLS ML82066448. Repair and refresh the existing house, no new units in the ARV. Comp: 151 N 24th St, 2/1 at 904 sf, built 1920, sold $855,406 in October.

RISK

Ask likely prices in the lot for a developer — we do not. Needs a 35.2% cut from ask. Walk away above $575k. R2 zoning does not prove you can build more.

VERDICT

Bid $550k. About $86k on a 12-month hold. Walk away above $575k.

view this listing →

Status Verification

Reader note. All four are bid prices that need cuts from ask. No seller has agreed. Walk away above each walk-away number. ARV and rehab are estimates. Model: 10% down hard money at 9.95%, rehab lender-funded, 12-month hold. Taxes and insurance not included. Listings checked active November 8. Not advice. Do your own due diligence. Every card assumes 10% down hard money at 9.95% interest-only with rehab lender-funded and a full 12 months of interest. Cash in is the down payment plus 3% purchase closing costs, selling costs are 4.5% of ARV, and ROI is on cash in. ARVs are set from nearby public-record sold prices. Rehab is an assumption, not a contractor bid. Dealsletter is not affiliated with the listings.

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