Special issueOctober 19, 2026
Four Bay Area flips, each projecting about $99k to $119k
Special issue. Three Silicon Valley 3/2s in Sunnyvale and Santa Clara, plus a bonus Lafayette pick on a big lot that we think is the best buy of the four. 850 Lakebird Dr (Sunnyvale) $1.15M, about $99k projected profit. 1940 Briarwood Dr (Santa Clara) $1.35M, about $119k. 411 Radcliffe Dr (Santa Clara) $1.70M, about $104k. Bonus: 1110 Sierra Vista Way (Lafayette) $1.40M, about $114k on a 9,960 sf lot.
Financing note
Numbers come from each property's deal package: 10% down hard money at 9.95% interest-only with rehab lender-funded, 3% purchase costs, a 10% rehab overrun, and 6% commission plus $3,500 staging on the sale. Holding costs are loan, taxes and insurance only. Rehab is an assumption, not a contractor bid.
SPECIALSUNNYVALE FLIPSANTA CLARA FLIPLAFAYETTE BONUS
DEAL 1 · SUNNYVALE FLIP
850 Lakebird Dr, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
flip · 4-month hold$1,150,000
UNDERWRITING
Rehab Est.
$170,500 (incl. 10% overrun)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,137 sq.ft. · built 1959 · 5,663 sf R1 lot · garage
FINANCING
Loan
$1,205,500 (90% of price + 100% of rehab)
OPPORTUNITY
3 bd / 2 ba, 1,137 sf, built 1959, on a 5,663 sf R1 lot with a garage. Most nearby 3/2 sales are the same 1,108 sf plan and closed $1.25M to $1.8M since May, including 785 Lakechime Dr at $1.73M, 1101 Prescott Ave at $1.76M and 1177 Prescott Ave at $1.8M.
RISK
The $1.6M ARV sits above the comp average of about $1.51M, so it relies on a top-of-market finish. The two most recent sales closed at $1.25M and $1.27M. Each extra month costs about $11.7k. At 6 months profit is about $75k. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Flip at $1.15M on a 4-month hold. Profit about $99k.
DEAL 2 · SANTA CLARA FLIP
1940 Briarwood Dr, Santa Clara, CA 95051
flip · 4-month hold$1,350,000
UNDERWRITING
Rehab Est.
$264,000 (incl. 10% overrun)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,212 sq.ft. · built 1954 · 5,454 sf R1 lot · garage
FINANCING
Loan
$1,479,000 (90% of price + 100% of rehab)
OPPORTUNITY
3 bd / 2 ba, 1,212 sf, built 1954, on a 5,454 sf R1 lot with a garage. 3471 San Marcos Way, the same 1,212 sf, sold for $1.95M in April. 1850 Briarwood Dr on the same street sold for $1.85M in September.
RISK
The $1.95M ARV is above the comp-average estimate of about $1.74M and leans on the best sales. Rehab is the biggest on the board at $264k. Each extra month costs about $14k. At 6 months profit is about $91k. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Flip at $1.35M on a 4-month hold. Profit about $119k, the highest on the board.
DEAL 3 · SANTA CLARA FLIP
411 Radcliffe Dr, Santa Clara, CA 95051
flip · 4-month hold$1,699,888
UNDERWRITING
Rehab Est.
$198,000 (incl. 10% overrun)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,302 sq.ft. · built 1962 · 6,000 sf R1 lot · garage
FINANCING
Loan
$1,727,899 (90% of price + 100% of rehab)
OPPORTUNITY
3 bd / 2 ba, 1,302 sf, built 1962, on a 6,000 sf R1 lot with a garage. The closest sales, 385 Cronin Dr and 383 Burnett Ave, closed at $2.32M and $2.45M. Nearby 3/2s ran $1.6M to $2.8M since April.
RISK
Most cash needed and the lowest ROI on the board. The $2.25M ARV is above the comp-average estimate of about $2.07M. Each extra month costs about $14.6k. At 6 months profit is about $75k. The package's property tax line looks low for a new purchase, so budget taxes on the new price. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Flip at $1.70M on a 4-month hold. Profit about $104k, but the most cash and the lowest ROI.
BONUS PICK · LAFAYETTE
1110 Sierra Vista Way, Lafayette, CA 94549
flip · 6-month hold · not Silicon Valley$1,400,000
UNDERWRITING
Rehab Est.
$242,000 (incl. 10% overrun)
Size
3BR / 2BA · 1,872 sq.ft. · built 1956 · 9,960 sf lot · garage
FINANCING
Loan
$1,502,000 (90% of price + 100% of rehab)
OPPORTUNITY
Not Silicon Valley, but too good to leave out. 3 bd / 2 ba, 1,872 sf, built 1956, on a 9,960 sf lot with a garage, bought at about $748/sf. The two closest sales, 1126 Hidalgo Ct next door and 808 Rosedale Ave, closed at $2.47M and $2.5M. The $2M ARV sits well under both.
RISK
Many comps in the package are 2+ miles away in lower-priced areas, so the comp average is only about $1.51M. Lean on the close Lafayette sales. It already carries a longer 6-month hold. At 4 months profit is about $140k. Rehab is an assumption.
VERDICT
Bonus pick. Flip at $1.40M on a 6-month hold. Profit about $114k. We think it is the best buy of the four.
Status Verification
Numbers come from each property's deal package: 10% down hard money at 9.95% interest-only with rehab lender-funded, 3% purchase costs, a 10% rehab overrun, and 6% commission plus $3,500 staging on the sale. Holding costs are loan, taxes and insurance only. Rehab is an assumption, not a contractor bid. Buyers do their own due diligence. Dealsletter is not affiliated with these listings.
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